The size of Cloud Gel's U.S. markets, segmented into heating and illumination Weather Panels, sunrooms, skylights, non-view windows, and greenhouses, is available in the literature of the respective industry. This data is accurate to +50%, when different sources and calculation methods are compared. The U.S. data is extrapolated to the world, using ratios which are commonly used in these industries. This accuracy is sufficient for our purposes because the markets are so large. The study summarized here was done several year ago. Since each of the market segments have grown, its estimates have been increased according to its growth rate.
Europe's population is 2 times larger than the U.S., so the European glazing markets are approximately 2 times larger than the U.S. markets.(1) The total glazing markets for Japan and the Pacific Rim are approximately 2 times larger than the U.S. market. After saturating the industrialized world, Low-E factory sales have nonetheless remained constant due to sales in the third world. Thus, we conservatively assume that the total world market is 6 times the U.S. market.
Of the world's population, 25%, or 1.7 billion, lives in the industrial world. The average family size is 5, or 335 million families, of which 50% live in 1-3 story residential dwellings, or 170 million 1-3 story dwellings. Each such dwelling averages 1000 square feet of roof per family, or 170 billion square feet of roofing for 1-3 story homes in the industrialized world.
In northern climates, 80% of these roofs would benefit from the Weather Panel and in Southern industrialized world climates, 50% would benefit from Weather Panel, for an average of 65%, giving the industrialized world's 1-3 story dwellings' roof area that would benefit from the Weather Panel of 110 billion square feet (22 million square meters). Therefore, with a complete turnover of building stock every 30 years on the average, the annual residential Weather Panel world market is 3.3% of 110 billion square feet, or 3.6 billion square feet (430 million square meters) per year.
Commercial buildings' floor square footage roughly equals residential dwellings', but commercial buildings average approximately 6 floors per building. Assuming that the commercial buildings' roof area that would benefit from the Weather Panel also equals 65% of the roof area, then the commercial buildings' Weather Panel would market is 33 million square feet (3.9 billion square meters). With a complete turnover of building stock every 30 years, the annual commercial buildings' Weather Panel world market is 1.2 billion square feet (130 million square meters) per year. Adding in 25% for the non-industrial world gives a total Weather Panel market is 6.0 billion square feet per year.
Residential sunrooms, with 9 million square feet being produced in the U.S. in 1989, presently have an estimated world production of 200 million square feet (47 million square meters).(2) Cloud Gel will benefit 80% of the new sunroom market, for a world market size of 160 million square feet (4 million square meters) per year.
The production level of new skylights in the U.S. in 1989 was 16 million square feet (1.5 million square meters) per year, and are presently approximately 25 million square feet per year.(3) About half of skylights are installed in air conditioned buildings. World skylight markets are estimated to be 6 times larger than U.S. markets, or 150 million square feet per year. The Cloud Gel new skylight market is approximately 70% of this, giving an estimated world market size of 105 million square feet (10 million square meters) per year.
Conservatively, we do not consider here the new market segment of skylights that are now able to replace electrical illumination because they have Cloud Gel. This market is over 1 billion square feet (900 million square meters) per year, or 7 times as large as present skylight production. Similarly, Low-E technology expanded the market for glass by raising the insulating value of double pane windows to 3 times the insulating value of single pane windows. This increase in performance caused double pane windows to triple the market size. (see Section 19) .
U.S. window sales were 800 million square feet per year in 1992(4), and is presently approximately 1.1B square feet per year, giving a world production of 6.6 billion square feet per year. A payback of 2 years in reduced air conditioning costs is assumed to be necessary for sales to occur. Thus, Cloud Gel markets are considered to be only South and West facing windows (or 50%), of which 65% receive direct sunlight (i.e., are not blocked by trees or other buildings), of which 30% are non-view windows. Therefore, 10% of the world's windows would benefit from Cloud Gel, giving an estimated world market of 660million square feet (60 million square meters) per year.
There are over 1 billion square feet of commercial greenhouses in the Netherlands, which has approximately 1/3 of the world's greenhouse area, giving a world green house area of 3 billion square feet. These greenhouses last for an average of 20 years, so that world production is 150 million square feet per year, of which approximately 70% would benefit economically from using Cloud Gel, for an estimated world market size of 105 million square feet (13 million square meters) per year.
Excluding solar heating and illumination with the Weather Panel, the total world markets for Cloud Gel are 1.0 billion square feet (90 million square meters) per year, or $3.6 billion (€2.6 billion) at a price of $3.50 per square foot (€30 per square meter). Including its Weather Panel markets, the total market for Cloud Gel is $27 billion (€20 billion).
The Weather Panel may be used to increase insulation in all of Cloud Gel’s markets. Adding these to it’s markets for solar heating (6 billion square feet per year; 550 million square meters) and illumination (800 million square feet; 70 million square meters) gives a market size of $175 billion (€125 billion), at a price of $25 per square foot (€200 per square meter).
(1) Glass Digest, August 1993;
(2) Dr. Harold E. Gray, Executive Director, National Greenhouse Manufacturers Association, personal communication
(3) Ducker Research Co., Birmingham, MI; derived from several recent studies by Mark E. Barron, Market Analyst; (4) DOE Lawrence Berkeley National Window Laboratory